When Minnesota Turns White: Exploring the Patterns Behind Heavy Snow Days

If you’ve lived in Minnesota long enough, you know the ritual: watching the weather forecast every October, wondering “Will this be the weekend it snows?”
This year, October came and went with not a single flake — but the data says the wait won’t be long.

According to the Minneapolis–St. Paul Climate Data* (2019–2025), the first significant snowfall — that’s at least one inch of snow — usually arrives between late October and mid-November.
So if you’re still holding out on swapping those fall jackets for parkas… maybe keep them close. The numbers suggest November will deliver Minnesota’s first snow of the season.

*The Twin Cities snowfall data set is derived by merging data from downtown St. Paul (1884-1891), downtown Minneapolis (1891-1938), the Twin Cities International Airport (1938-2000), the Chanhassen Office of the National Weather Service (2000-2004), and back to the Twin Cities International Airport (2004-present).

What Snow Days Really Feel Like

When the snow does come, it brings drama.
Our analysis shows that on days with heavy snow, temperatures have swung from -9°F to as high as 46°F — a reminder that “snow day” doesn’t always mean “freezing day.”
Add in the winds averaging between 4.5 and 21.9 mph, and you’ve got the perfect mix of swirling flakes, foggy breath, and flying scarves that define a true Minnesota winter scene.

You can see it in the Monthly Snowfall and Wind Trends graph — snow piles up, and the wind almost always joins the party.

Haze, Mist, and Fog — The Usual Winter Companions

The sky has its own language on snowy days.
Across our dataset, the most common weather descriptions during heavy snowfall include haze, mist, fog, and smoke — the kind of thick air that makes headlights glow and downtown skylines disappear behind a frosty blur.

The word cloud visualization in the dashboard captures these moods perfectly — a visual echo of how winter looks and feels in the Twin Cities.

Whether you welcome it with excitement or brace for the shovel, one truth remains: winter always returns — sometimes quietly, sometimes in a storm’s roar.
And as temperatures dip and the lakes glaze over, the signs are clear — the first snow is near, wrapping Minnesota in the calm and stillness only winter can bring.

Time to grab a mug of something warm, turn on that fireplace video, and get ready for the soft silence that only a fresh snowfall can bring.